Texas A&M vs Miami Odds & Picks: Our High Unfold & Over/Beneath Bets for Prime-Time Matchup – The Motion Community
Texas A&M vs Miami Odds
By Dan Keegan
Our premier sport of Week 3 options two traditionally profitable faculties making an attempt to climb their manner again into the game’s higher echelon. For each Texas A&M and Miami, this sport is a measuring stick of how far they’ve climbed of their quest to the mountaintop, or presumably an indication of how far they nonetheless need to go.
Miami is in Yr 1 of the Mario Cristobal period, and the Canes want to shore up a protection that ranked 51st in SP+ final season. They dealt with Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss at dwelling of their first two video games and now head to College Station for the measuring stick.
Oddsmakers are assured within the Canes’ bounceback within the ACC, making them second within the convention to win the league at +450. A powerful displaying on this contest might decrease that quantity considerably.
Whereas the Hurricanes are simply leaving base camp on their trek to the summit, the Aggies are in a traumatic place. This marks the fifth 12 months of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure in College Station, and his crew simply misplaced at dwelling to Appalachian State.
Fisher has been looking for a quarterback, and an argument is burgeoning between starter Haynes King and backup Max Johnson. Fisher has been often known as a “quarterback whisperer,” nevertheless it’s onerous to disregard the rising echoes that the sport has developed past him.
The protection is great, and it’s the place the outcomes of Fisher’s apex recruiting work shines most clearly. The entrance seven is imply, nasty and chiseled, whereas the defensive backs circulation to the ball like an avalanche. That facet of the ball ranks second in SP+ on the younger season after ending seventh final 12 months.
This must be a captivating sport in entrance of the rowdy — and anxious — Kyle Discipline partisans. We must always acquire some insights into among the groups on the following touchdown down from the true title contenders.
We polled 17 of our college football specialists on workers to kind by and discover a consensus on how one can guess this huge sport. Let’s get into their evaluation.
Texas A&M vs Miami Level Unfold
By Cody Goggin
Final week in opposition to a a lot much less gifted opponent, Texas A&M’s offense was dreadful. The Aggies posted an Offensive Success Price in simply the twenty eighth percentile in a sport it most likely ought to’ve received handily.
Haynes King regarded utterly outmatched as he averaged -0.63 EPA per play in opposition to Appalachian State. Now, LSU switch Max Johnson is about to begin in opposition to the Hurricanes.
Texas A&M’s protection is its largest energy. It enters because the No. 2 protection within the nation, per SP+, and held an App State crew that scored 60 factors in opposition to North Carolina the week earlier than to only a 14th percentile Success Price.
Miami has began the season in opposition to two simpler opponents in Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss, nevertheless it’s proven up and brought care of enterprise. In these two weeks, the Hurricanes have posted Offensive Success Price ranks within the 99th and 92nd percentiles, leaving them with one of the best Offensive Success Price within the nation.
Tyler Van Dyke is one of the best quarterback on this sport and has generated some buzz as a possible excessive choose within the NFL Draft.
Miami’s protection has additionally been profitable in these two video games, rating eleventh within the nation in Defensive Success Price. It isn’t projected to maintain this up all through the course of the season, nevertheless, as SP+ ranks it because the Thirty ninth-best protection within the nation.
In the long run, I imagine each groups must throw the ball to win this one. I’d not belief King to win this, and his job might probably be in bother if issues go poorly.
Regardless of A&M having an excellent protection, Van Dyke will get one among his hardest assessments of the season, and I feel he’ll reach protecting this sport shut and presumably even main his Hurricanes to a win.
By CJ Vogel
The blueprint to beat Texas A&M is there, and it’s to let the Aggies proceed doing no matter it’s they’ve been doing the primary two weeks in College Station.
Haynes King and the Aggie offense has been quite anemic so far. Scoring simply 14 factors in its final sport in opposition to Appalachian State, Texas A&M will now need to face its hardest defensive opponent off its most embarrassing loss in a decade.
The Aggies’ customary down EPA ranks a hundred and twentieth within the nation offensively.
Texas A&M could have the fortune of enjoying at dwelling, as Kyle Discipline will undoubtedly be a bonus. Although, when crowd noise turns into most advantageous is on third down, and Miami has been excellent on these performs this season.
That’s going to be an amazing difficulty for an Aggie protection that couldn’t get off the sphere in opposition to App State, because the Mountaineers went 9-of-20 on third down and 3-of-5 on fourth down whereas holding possession for 41:29.
That is going to be a one-score sport, and I’m undecided the crew that can win is the one which’s favored. Take Miami, and revel in your evening.
Texas A&M vs Miami Over/Beneath
Word: When the college football workers was surveyed, the over/below sat at 48.5 factors. The road has steadily decreased to 44.5 all through the week. As of Thursday night, we’ve pocketed a closing line worth of 8.6%.
Final weekend was an unmitigated catastrophe for Jimbo Fisher and his Texas A&M Aggies. The then-No. 6 Aggies misplaced a decent sport, which was largely a defensive battle after Appalachian State scored the one three factors of the fourth quarter to win, 17-14.
Regardless that the Aggies entered the season with the top-ranked recruiting class within the nation, per 247Sports, maybe there simply isn’t sufficient offensive firepower. Within the final 4 recruiting cycles, Texas A&M has signed eight defensive five-stars to 5 offensive five-star signees.
The complete crew is loaded with promise, however within the final two video games, it’s been the protection that has been doing the heavy lifting.
In Week 1, the Aggies snubbed a venerable Sam Houston from the FCS ranks, 31-0. Then they went on to carry an Appalachian State crew that seems to have a prolific offense to solely 17 factors after the Mountaineers put up 61 the week earlier than in opposition to North Carolina in a shedding effort.
As a lot as final week’s loss stings for the Aggies, it’s an indictment on the offense that couldn’t scrape collectively 18 factors in opposition to a crew that gave up 63 the week prior.
The present state of affairs additionally speaks volumes to the efficiency of the Aggie protection after two sturdy performances. Texas A&M enters the competition with Miami tied for eleventh within the nation in scoring protection, giving up simply 8.5 factors per sport thus far.
Miami hasn’t been examined to the extent that Texas A&M has, and you can definitely make the case that neither crew has actually been examined at this juncture.
However Miami comes into the sport with a protection that has proven promise too. The Canes at present rank sixteenth within the nation in scoring protection after giving up 13 factors and 7 factors in opposition to Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss in Weeks 1 and a pair of.
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke could have his hardest take a look at of the season at Kyle Discipline. After what may very well be described as a shaky begin at greatest final week, Van Dyke faces a Texas A&M secondary that’s stacked with expertise and ranks seventh in Defensive Passing Success Price.
Search for the Aggie protection to relish of their position because the crew’s energy. Particularly, the A&M secondary will pressure the ball to the bottom, the place Miami has been probably the most snug on this younger season.
Texas A&M vs Miami Moneyline, Props & Unique Picks
This can be a sport I’ve had circled on my calendar from the very begin.
I used to be excessive on Miami getting into the season, and this can be a must-win sport if it desires to be taken significantly as a playoff contender.
After bringing in offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to revitalize the offense — a rent that made me fall in love with the Canes — Miami has steamrolled its lesser competitors thus far this season.
Whereas Texas A&M will likely be its hardest take a look at but as the most effective defenses within the nation, Miami is greater than able to transferring the ball with the most effective customary down Success Charges in college football. That weak point of A&M’s protection was on full show in opposition to App State.
Whereas the defensive metrics are skewed due to the standard of competitors, it will make or break Miami’s long-term success this season. Fortunately for us, the Aggies offense has been brutal.
Even surrounded by immense expertise, Texas A&M’s Haynes King has struggled to maintain drives when the offense lulls. If Miami’s offense continues to roll, this might get ugly quick for the Aggies.
Whereas I’m on the unfold and already posted it within the Motion App, I’ll additionally take Miami on the moneyline in what will likely be a press release sport for the Hurricanes.
You recognize what wouldn’t be a enjoyable place to play, coach or be a fan final week? College Station, Texas.
After inking the highest recruiting class of 2022, there have been loads of pundits throwing across the Texas A&M identify within the nationwide title dialog. However after a loss to Appalachian State final week, the Aggies can neglect the dream of hoisting the natty in California come early January.
Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher clearly has to make some adjustments. Precedence No. 1 needs to be getting extra factors on the board. Aggie quarterback Haynes King threw for less than 97 yards final week on a 13-for-20 effort.
Fisher was in the same state of affairs final season with quarterback Zach Calzada. After Calzada stumbled in SEC play early on, Fisher opened up the playbook and Calzada led the Aggies to an upset over No. 1 ranked Alabama.
Fisher once more finds himself in the same predicament this season. King began scorching in opposition to Sam Houston after which cooled off final week.
There’s no selection however for Texas A&M to return out in assault mode. Search for Fisher to take the coaching wheels off early and let King sling it round. King is the man in the interim, and getting his confidence up heading into SEC play subsequent week will likely be key.
I like the bounce-back spot for a refocused Texas A&M crew at dwelling after getting embarrassed on the nationwide stage.
I see some worth on the unfold at a landing and no additional level, however my favourite guess is laying a hook on the first-quarter unfold.
Search for the Aggie protection to proceed to toe the road and the King-led offense to return out scorching.
After what we noticed final week, it’s onerous to believe in any a part of this Texas A&M crew. In any case, it scored simply 14 factors in a loss to Appalachian State at dwelling. However who was answerable for each level the Aggies scored final week? Devon Achane.
Achane led the SEC with seven yards per carry final season, and he could be a candidate for the Heisman if his crew wasn’t so unhealthy.
He’s a veteran on this Texas A&M crew and serves as somebody somebody all the crew can depend on to carry out when it wants him most. With Isaiah Spiller gone, Achane’s reps and utilization unquestionably will improve transferring ahead, particularly if the passing sport can’t discover success.
No matter whether or not King continues to battle by the air or not, I feel Achane will likely be a significant component on this sport. Miami’s protection is strong, however one of many few weak spots it has displayed — even in opposition to inferior competitors thus far — is stopping explosive runs. Miami ranks 113th in defensive dashing play explosiveness.
I locked in Achane’s dashing yards at over 65.5 on PrizePicks. However as soon as participant props are out, I’ll be seeking to take him individually as effectively at 75.5 yards or higher.